NASA, the very same agency that once put men on the Moon on a diet of Tang and bravado, has officially acknowledged what we all suspected: without SpaceX, its lunar aspirations might remain firmly grounded.
In testimony before the House Science Committee this week, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said the space agency is relying heavily — uncomfortably so, one might say — on Elon Musk’s SpaceX to develop the Starship lunar lander that will return astronauts to the Moon as early as 2026. This particular Starship, which sounds like something from a ’70s prog rock album, is being designed to ferry humans from lunar orbit to the surface and back. That return date was originally stamped as 2025, although, much like New Year’s resolutions, it has since quietly slipped one year forward.
“If Starship is not ready for the Artemis III mission, then the mission will be delayed,” Nelson said with all the enthusiasm of someone realizing their group project partner has stopped responding to emails. He also offered what could generously be called a vote of cautious optimism. “It is in both NASA’s and SpaceX’s interest to get this done as soon as possible,” he added, omitting the silent prayer that likely followed.
NASA’s reliance on SpaceX is, to borrow an aerospace term, suborbital. The agency has awarded not one but two contracts to Musk’s company: one for the Artemis III landing and another for Artemis IV. These contracts are part of a larger program that sounds like something out of a science fiction film reboot — the Human Landing System initiative — which is designed to bring competition, innovation and maybe a spare rocket or two to lunar landings. In truth, SpaceX currently enjoys the unique privilege of being both the front-runner and runner-up, mostly because other vendors are still at the lunch planning phase while SpaceX is already building things that explode magnificently at Boca Chica.
Nelson did attempt to reassure lawmakers that there is a backup: the Artemis IV mission includes a second lunar lander built by Blue Origin, which was recently awarded a $3.4 billion contract. While that may sound like a formidable Plan B, Blue Origin’s lander has not yet been built, tested or even given an inspiring name. In short, Plan B is still in pencil.
In the meantime, SpaceX is barreling ahead in its unique way, having conducted multiple Starship test flights, all of which have ended in what the company calls “rapid unscheduled disassembly” and what most people call “fiery bursts of ambition.” The most recent flight in March did manage to reach orbit before losing communication during reentry, which, in fairness, is better than most blind dates.
Ultimately, NASA’s lunar return now hinges on SpaceX hitting some very tight marks — launching several refueling tankers, fully testing a crewed Starship and sticking the landing — all in the next two years. To call this ambitious would be like calling James Webb a pair of binoculars.
The Moon may not be made of cheese, but at this point it might as well be bait for billionaires.