Well, it has happened. Again. The economy of the United States, that plucky trillion-dollar behemoth known for its love of apple pie and quarterly earnings, has officially tripped and landed face-first into a recession, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is essentially the economic equivalent of a referee blowing the whistle long after everyone figured out the game was over.
This latest downturn comes after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which, in economist-speak, is akin to saying the country’s financial treadmill has been moving in reverse while everyone was still pretending they were getting their steps in. Consumer spending has waned, inflation remains nervously high, and interest rates have enjoyed a dramatic upward journey not seen since the era of big perms and bigger trade deficits.
The Federal Reserve, ever the stern parent in this monetary drama, has continued its valiant quest to tame inflation by making money more expensive and borrowing slightly less appealing than a third date with a tax auditor. Chairman Jerome Powell assured the public that while the central bank was not exactly popping champagne, it remained committed to economic stability. Though for now, that stability seems to involve a lot of squinting at charts and quietly muttering “transitory.”
Across the nation, job growth has slowed to a stiff shuffle, consumer confidence is taking long walks by itself on the beach, and market volatility has been flipping between euphoria and existential dread with the agility of a caffeinated cat. Investors, naturally, have responded the way investors do, by expressing deep concern while continuing to act like this is somehow a buying opportunity.
“We do not take this lightly,” said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, staring down the economic outlook with the grim determination usually reserved for long-haul flights in economy class, “but we have tools to address these challenges.”
Wall Street analysts have weighed in, many nodding gravely and deploying the usual complex terminology that boils down to “nobody could have seen it coming” despite the fact that large blinking signs and graphs have been pointing this direction for months. Meanwhile, American consumers have noticed that eggs now cost more than solid gold in certain states, and this, apparently, is what we now call an economic indicator.
In response, some lawmakers have proposed targeted relief, which is a wonky way of saying “checks may or may not be in the mail eventually,” while others have focused on ensuring that the recession remains a bipartisan experience, equally disappointing to voters on both sides of the aisle.
Still, if history is any guide, the U.S. economy has a remarkable ability to stumble, lurch, course correct and eventually rebound, usually in time for someone else to take the credit. But for now, the nation finds itself staring into the economic abyss once again, this time armed with slightly less optimism and significantly more avocado toast.
Because nothing says resilience quite like refinancing your mortgage at 8 percent to buy a used Kia.